Published on Wednesday September 19 2012 (AEST)
Uranium’s recovery from the
Fukushima nuclear accident may take one or two years longer than
analysts estimated as stockpiles in Japan and Germany keep
prices low and cause mining companies to defer new development.
The price of uranium for immediate delivery declined to $47
a pound as of Sept. 17, its lowest in two years, according to Ux
Consulting, a Roswell, Georgia-based uranium information
provider. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Paladin Energy Ltd. (PDN) have slowed
or deferred development this year of some projects to produce
the raw material in nuclear reactor fuel.
Japan temporarily shut all of its nuclear reactors after
the disaster at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi
plant. That nation’s return to nuclear power and demand for
electricity in China, which is building 25 reactors, was
supposed to help drive prices for the fuel back up in 2015, said
Thomas Neff, a retired physicist at the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology. That date that may be pushed back a year or two.
“There was a wave of optimism the Japanese would come back
on fast and that China would resume rapid development,” Neff,
who now works as an energy industry researcher for the
university’s Center for International Studies, said yesterday by
phone from Jackson, Wyoming. “Day-to-day spot prices are
reflecting the belief that the short-term outlook -- at least
two to three years out -- is less certain than it was.”
Japan will end the use of atomic power by the 2030s, the
government said Sept. 14, and Germany’s government has also
decided to phase out nuclear energy. China continues to review
approvals for new reactors amid concerns about safety, Heenal Patel, a London-based energy analyst with Bloomberg Industries,
said yesterday.
Net Demand
“Japanese and German inventories and displaced supply
would result in no net new demand until after 2015,” Neff said,
citing a January study his group did. The new target for a
return to uranium demand is 2016 or 2017, he said.
Not everyone expects the uranium price to languish.
“We retain strong conviction in starkly higher prices on
compelling supply-demand fundamentals and the prices required to
incentivize new supply,” David Sadowski, a Vancouver-based
analyst at Raymond James Ltd., said in a Sept. 8 note to
clients.
Sadowski expects prices to average $60 a pound next year,
$72 in 2014 and $75 in 2015, according to the note.
Prices this year have averaged $50.84 a pound. Uranium next
year may average $64 a pound, the median estimate of four
economists and analysts. Three analysts expect $70 in 2014,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
BHP, the world’s largest mining company, last month put on
hold an expansion that would make its Olympic Dam project in
Australia the biggest uranium mine.
‘Economic Challenges’
Cameco Corp. (CCO), the world’s third-largest producer, said in
July that its Kintyre uranium project in Australia would need a
$67 uranium price to be economical. The company sold uranium
for $42 a pound during the second quarter.
“To fuel the more than 60 reactors currently under
construction and the further growth we expect by 2021,
production will have to come from new primary sources,”
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Cameco said in a July 27
statement. “In today’s environment, those sources of production
pose economic challenges, for us and other producers, similar to
those we have identified at Kintyre.”
Paladin, an Australian company that mines uranium in
Africa, is delaying a feasibility study on phase four of its
Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, the company said on a
conference call in May.
A lack of investment in new mines may lead to a substantial
increase in prices toward the end of the decade, said Dustin Garrow, Paladin’s executive general manager of marketing.
“You’d have to see $85 uranium on a sustained basis to
justify construction of new mines to meet supply requirements
through 2020,” Garrow said yesterday by phone from Littleton,
Colorado.
.